Lieberman's Loss

The results of the Connecticut Democratic Senate Primary are in--

Ned Lamont 146,587 51.79%
Joe Lieberman 136,468 48.21%

Senator Lieberman failed to win the nomination of his party for the Senate in November, as he -as everyone I am sure knows- came under attack from anti-war Democrats who believed he had been too close to President Bush. Ned Lamont, a wealthy businessman was able to capitalize on this and now has his party's nomination for the Senate this November. Lieberman had said before the primary that he would proceed with or without his party's nomination, although many Democrats have tried to get him to withdraw from the race and support Lamont. First of all, reports of Lieberman's political demise have been greatly exhaggerated, especially because of the fact that while he lost the primary, the 3 point margin was closer than any poll, and indeed Lieberman entered into the final days with momentum. Seemingly, Lamont peaked near the end of July and the polls narrowed since then, although none of them predicted the closeness of the final result. The Democrats had said before the primary that they would be supportive of their party's nominee, and Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton was one of the first major party leaders to give money to Lamont's campaign. She also said that she might campaign with him this November. The other Senator from Connecticut, Christopher Dodd, has also said that he will endorse Lieberman. Senator Charles Schumer, Chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Commitee, has issued a statement saying that the result "bodes well for the Democrats in the fall since the race was a referendum on the President."

They are deluding themselves if they think that Lieberman can be persuaded to withdraw from this race if he is ahead in the polls and there is no Republican nominee with any chance of winning this seat in November. Former State Representative Alan Schleisinger is not going to have any real chance of winning if he remains the Republican nominee, particularly after the revalations about his major gambling debts.

The main reason why the Democrats have been so quick to rally around Lamont is because of political necessity and a desire not to offend their base. In order to win control of congress this November they are going to have to have an enthusiastic turnout from liberal antiwar voters, the same voters who turned out to vote against Senator Lieberman on Tuesday. If the party establishment were to say that they were supporting Lieberman regardless of what happens, then it would get these voters into an open revolt. The reason why Hillary Clinton contributed to Lamont's campaign so early is because she likely plans to run for President and therefore cannot waste any opportunity to pacify the liberal wing of party, or at least make it so that they can tolerate her if she is the general election nominee in 2008. She's not going to be the one to commit political suicide by endorsing Lieberman. The support of the party is going to get Lamont a great deal of money for the general election campaign over the next three months that is going to help close the gap. Lieberman doesn't have access to those donors now, and he is going to need an alternative source of funds. What he does have is a political patron in President Bush, who even at 39 percent approval is still the President of the United States and still has the ability that Presidents have to raise money for candidates. It was no accident that Karl Rove called Joe Lieberman after the result was announced. Its a marriage of convenience: Lieberman needs Bush so that he can get funds from traditionally Republican donors, and Bush needs Lieberman so that he can say that he has bipartisan support for his policies in Iraq. Bush is not going to endorse Lieberman publicly, because that would do more harm than good and would confirm the accusations made by Lamont's campaign, and he won't do that because he isn't that stupid. However, he can do a lot of things to help Lieberman surreptitiously. There is nothing like a unanticipated call from the President to persuade a Republican nominee with no chance of winning to drop out of the race and endorse Lieberman a few days before the elections. As I said above, Bush needs Lieberman and Lieberman needs Bush, so its the perfect political marriage of convenience. Ambition has strange bedfellows.

Right now for the general election it looks like Lieberman is leading, although I have not seen any polling recently. The only exception to this is a Rasmussen poll that showed Lieberman and Lamont tied at 40 percent of the vote, with Republican Alan Schleisinger at 13 percent. I will comment more on this race as it unfolds.