Berlusconi is not finished yet

On June 24th and 25th, Italians voted overwhelmingly against a referendum on constitutional reform proposed by the previous government headed by Silvio Berlusconi's House of Freedom center-right coalition. Final results show that 61.7 percent of Italians voted against the reforms, with 38.7 percent of Italians voting in favor of them. This marks the third time this year that Romano Prodi and the new government formed by the center-left have emerged victorious over Berlusconi who asked the voters to "get revenge" on the Prodi government both in the local elections and the referendum over the constitution.

If passed, the constitutional changes would have devolved control over both Health and Education to the provinces in a key concession to Berlusconi's allies the Northern League, which could leave the center-right coalition now that the measures failed. They would also have fundamentally changed the way governments in Italy are formed and the way the operate.

Under the present system, elections for parliament must be held every five years to the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, both of which have equal legislative power and functions. Every seven years parliament elects the President of the Italian Republic to serve as head of state, and when new elections are held the Presidnet holds consultations and appoints the government. Theoretically the President could appoint anyone Prime Minister provided that they have the ability to win confidence votes in both houses of parliament. The newly appointed Prime Minister, official titled "President of the Council of Ministers" then submits the list of ministers to the President who then approves of them. It is more complex than this a lot of the time but I am trying to simplify it. If the Prime Minister wants to conduct a major reshuffle, he cannot simply sack the ministers he wants to replace and appoint new ones. Rather, he must tender his resignation to the President and then hope that the President allows him to form a government with the changes he desires to make. This leads to instability, and Italy has had 61 governments since the end of World War II.

As a matter of fact, Silvio Berlusconi, Prime Minister from June-December 1994 and then again from June 2001 to May 2006, served longer in the post than anyone else since the end of World War II. Sure he was defeated in his bid for a second term, but the fact is that he is the only Prime Minister ever to last the five year term so he COULD be defeated afterwards. Additionally, the center-right House of Freedoms coalition, led by Berlusconi did better than expected in the elections and actually won the total popular vote. The reason why Prodi's Union won is because in the Chamber of Deputies they recieved 49.8 percent to 49.7 percent for the House of Freedoms, and in the Senate their votes were able to control a majority of the seats because they are allocated by regions.

Romano Prodi was elected very narrowly and took over in May 2006 with the narrowest of Senate majorities and a substantial advantage in the Chamber of Deputies only because of the "winner's bonus" that is allocated to the coalition recieving the most votes. Since taking over Prodi has run into one difficulty after another with his coalition which ranges from hardline communists to centrist roman catholics. He has been helped because the specter of Berlusconi's return has held the coalition together. Berlusconi, meanwhile, has alleged electoral fraud and has been asking voters to punish Prodi first in the local elections (they declined) and then in the referendum (they declined to punish him then also). Since the defeat many commentators have said that Berlusconi is finished, and that his coalition could fall apart, or at the minimum there could be a Leadership challenge. However, with his position of being seemingly discredited, the communists are no longer going to be restrained by fear of his return. This makes it more likely that the government will either fall, or descend into incoherence.

Government's that are incoherent and divided are generally voted down at the polls, and voting down Prodi in this case would mean the return of Italy's richest man as Prime Minister. Even as they cheer his demise, even as they write his political obituary, forgetting that Berlusconi came back once before after the fall of his first government, they are making his return as Prime Minister more likely.