California 50th District Special Election

On June 6th in the California 50th district there is going to be an important special election which could help predict what the result is going to be in the fall. It is not going to be a perfect indicator as in 2004 the victory of Stephanie Herseth in South Dakota following the resignation of Billy Janklow, didn't presage Democratic control of the House of Representatives in the fall. This could be a similar situation, but still, as a Republican its better for Brian Bilbray to win the seat and hold it for the House Republicans than it is for Francine Busby to win it. Its not a test per se, but it is always good for the Republicans to win these special elections.

Republicans are going to have to retain seats like this to retain control of the House this fall, and if Francine Busby is the incumbent she is going to have something of a natural advantage. The election may be national to a certain extent but the way control of the House is decided is victories in individual constituencies like this one and the Democrats are going to be one seat closer to the majority if they win this special election.