Will Democrats win control of the House in 2006?

Perhaps the central question of the 2006 election cycle is whether or not the Democrats will be able to gain enough seats to win control of either the House of Representatives or the Senate in this November's elections. Usually the House only switches when the Senate flips as well, but this year things could be different given the makeup of the Senate races and the likelihood that the Republicans will retain control of the upper chamber. There are simply too few hotly contested races for Democrats to stand a realistic possibility of winning that chamber, although they could potentially win it by carrying a few Senators in on the strength of a massive victory in the House, though this is unlikely.

Can the Democrats win the House, in order to find the answer to this question, let's first examine the closest races of 2004 which resulted in Republican victories:

Indiana 9 - Mike Sodrel (0.5 percent)
Pennsylvania 6 - Jim Gerlach (2.03)
Connecticut 4 - Christopher Shays (4.68)
Washington 8 - Dave Reichert (4.8)
Colorado 4 - Marilyn Musgrave (6.27)
Minnesota 6 - Mark Kennedy (8.05) -Open Seat in 2006
Connecticut 2 - Rob Simmons (8.37)
Indiana 8 - John Hostettler (8.82)
New Mexico 1 - Heather Wilson (8.88)
Indiana 2 - Chris Choccola (9.63)
North Carolina 11 - Charles Taylor (9.8)
New York 29 - Randy Kuhl (9.86)
Louisiana 7 - Charles Boustany (9.92)
Virginia 2 - Thelma Drake (10.27)
Kentucky 4 - Geoff Davis (10.51)
Texas 32 - Pete Sessions (10.51)
Florida 13 - Katherine Harris (10.6) - Open Seat in 2006

These were some of the closest House races in 2004, and we have to keep in mind that simply because a race was close then doesn't mean it will be close this year. In the Texas 32nd, Pete Sessions defeated Rep. Martin Frost, who was probably the best the Democrats could have put up. As I examine these races and others which would potentially be close, I have to come to the conclusion that the Democrats can't - and won't - win control of the House of Representatives in November 2006. The media believes they can because reporters lack framiliarity with the individual races, and when they are examined it reveals the truly uphill battle Democrats face this November.

Additionally, many of the seats the Democrats are decently positioned to oust Republican incumbents in are districts where Kerry won large percentages of the vote. Currently for example, the delegation from Connecticut, a state won by Kerry, has three Republicans (Nancy Johnson, Christopher Shays, and Rob Simmons) against only two democrats (Rosa DeLauro, John Larson). Christopher shays was reelected only 52-48 over Democrat Diane Farrell, and she is running again this year in a political climate more favorable to the Democrats, and the race is anyone's at the moment, and the seat would be one of the easiest pickup opportunities for the Democrats. Additionally the seat held by Rob Simmons would be another potential gain, giving the Democrats a 4-1 edge in the Connecticut delegation. The thing is, it is entirely possible for the Democrats to win the House on the strength of blue state anger at Republicans, but such a victory would not last over the long term. They would be winning many seats which would not exist in a few years after the 2010 census, and it would be entirely possible for Republicans to retake the House in 2008 or 2010 if Democrats win this year.

Such a "blue state sweep" might actually in my humble opinion be one of the worst possible scenarios for the Democratic Party, as they would win on the strength of the liberal base without actually changing to make themselves more mainstream. The fact is that voters aren't sold on the Democrats yet, and they have a lot of work to do to win the support of mainstream Americans.