2008 Republican Nomination

Its almost that time again where we start looking at candidates for the next Presidential election to figure out who has the early lead in getting the party nominations. I am going to start with the Republican nomination and will do the Democratic nomination sometime fairly soon. Right now we are in July 2006, and the nomination process doesn't begin until about January 2008, but by this time next year the campaign is going to be in full swing with candidates stumping the country. In the latest Gallup poll we have things basically unchanged from how they have been for a long time, but its still able to give us a snapshot of where things stand right now--

Republican Voters (June 1-4)

Rudy Giuliani: 29
John McCain: 24
Newt Gingrich: 8
Mitt Romney: 6
Bill Frist: 6
George Allen: 5
Sam Brownback: 2
Mike Huckabee: 2
George Pataki: 1


It is far too early for any of this to be set in stone, but we can learn a lot from the results of this poll. First, we know the challenges that each of the candidates face going into the nomination process in terms of name recognition. Rudy Giuliani was Mayor of New York on September 11th, 2001, so he has almost universal name recognition, and John McCain is known from his unsuccessful Presidential campaign in 2000. Republicans usually nominate their early frontrunner, and many insiders are saying that McCain is going to win the nomination, and these are people who believed that he didn't stand a chance a few years ago. He is second in this poll, but by many people's reasoning, he is more conservative than Giuliani, who is pro-choice and ambivalent about gay marriage. Giuliani is going to have to overcome those two obstacles in order to win the nomination.

Giuliani and McCain are known to the public at large and are generally respected and that is why they are leading at the moment. They are going to be well in contention for the nomination should either or both of them announce for President. Now, we can move onto the second tier candidates: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Bill Frist, and George Allen.

Newt Gingrich is known because he was Speaker of the House for four years from 1995 to 1998, but is also viewed unfavorably from that time. He has support that won't ever likely leave him but he has only a limited range to grow on. I can't honestly envision him winning the election.

Mitt Romney's increase in support (from 1-2 percent in many polls a year ago) is a very good sign for him and it shows that there is something very really happening here. He has signed the first universal health care program in the United States into law and this is going to give him and accomplishment that many of the other contenders don't have. When he was Governor of Virginia, George Allen abolished parole and did a few other things but overall there wasn't much that he accomplished that left a real lasting legacy. He's a great politician and a great communicator but I am not sure that he is going to be able to win the nomination or, for that matter the general election. He is battle-tested from tough races but realistically, creation of national concealed weapons' permits is not the most pressing issue nationally in 2008. Many Republicans compare him to Ronald Reagan but forget that while Reagan changed American Politics, the nation has moved past the time where someone like him would be an acceptable Presidential candidate. Bill Frist has been scratched up from running the Senate and failing to get things done, and this is going to damage him should he run for President, but his post as Senate Majority Leader does have the name recognition where he could win the election.

Now, with the third teir candidates: Mike Huckabee, George Pataki, and Sam Brownback. These candidates have to increase their name recognition to win the election, but unfortunately for Pataki, this could also mean that he has no chance of winning the nomination. As Governor of New York he was in a relatively high profile position on September 11th, and if that didn't give him name recognition then there isn't much that will.