The survivors of 2006

Before the election the Democrats were expected to win control of the House, and the Senate was seen as totally up for grabs although far more uncertain. There were frequently lists of the incumbents who were the most vulnerable Republicans, and were thought certain to go down if the Democrats were going to win control of the House. The Democrats won the number of seats they were expected to win, but the untold story is that many of their gains came against incumbents who were not expected to lose, while other Republican incumbents who were not expected to survive ended up prevailing against the trend. In this post I am going to talk about the survivors of 2006, and in the next post I am going to talk about the unexpected casualties.

1. Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-Pennsylvania)

Jim Gerlach has lived dangerously as the Congressman from the 6th district of Pennsylvania since he was elected in 2002 by a narrow margin. While most members of the House are easily reelected, Gerlach has always had tough fights, and in all three of his elections he has come out narrowly--

2002: Jim Gerlach (R) 51.37, Dan Woofard (D) 48.63
2004: Jim Gerlach (R) 51.01, Lois Murphy (D) 48.99
2006: Jim Gerlach (R) 50.64, Lois Murphy (D) 49.36

The most interesting thing about Gerlach is that of the Pennsylvania Republicans who faced competitive challenges, he was long thought to be the most vulnerable. The Democrats were able to get Lois Murphy to run against him again and she was thoguht likely to win, and this was thought to be one of the seats that was definately going to be a takeover if they were to win control of the chamber. Gerlach's victory was probably attributable to the fact that he is a good candidate, and also that he was prepared for this, he has had tough campaigns before and knew that he might not be reelected in this environment, so he prepared his hardest for this campaign and ended up winning a third term. This is definately going to be a competitive seat again in 2008, although I do think that if Gerlach can win in this environment then he has at least an even chance of prevailing again in two years.

2. Rep. Heather Wilson (R-New Mexico)

Before the election, the National Journal reported in its rankings of the house races that "if you believe that the Democrats are going to win the majority, you believe that Patricia Madrid is going to be one of their freshmen." Guess what, the Democrats won the majority, and outgoing NM Attorney General Patricia Madrid (D) is not going to be one of their freshmen. Heather Wilson is another one of those members like Gerlach, who faces a competitive challenge every two years and knows how to overcome them. Here are her results--

June 1998 special election: Heather Wilson (R) 44.58, Philip Maloof (D) 39.61, Robert Anderson (G) 14.79

1998: Heather Wilson (R) 48.44, Philip Maloof (D) 41.88, Robert Anderson (G) 9.64
2000: Heather Wilson (R) 50.34, John Kelly (D) 43.25, Daniel Kerlinsky (G) 6.41
2002: Heather Wilson (R) 55.34, Richard Romero (D) 44.66
2004: Heather Wilson (R) 54.39, Richard Romero (D) 45.51
2005: Heather Wilson (R) 50.21, Patricia Madrid (D) 49.79

I think this is another example of what having competitive races every two years does to a member in terms of preparation for challenges. They are not going to be caught off guard and if they lose its going to be due to lack of preparation. As with Jim Gerlach I think its entirely possible that Wilson could lose at some point, particularly if the Democrats in New Mexico redraw this district, but she knows how to win tough fights and I think that gives her something of an advantage in future contests.

I went into detail about the first two becuase their reelection was truly at least somewhat unexpected, whereas with the others it was winning against the trend in a competitive contest.

3. Rep. Christopher Shays (R-Connecticut)
4. Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-New York)
5. Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R-Colorado)
6. Rep. Geoff Davis (R-Kentucky)
7. Rep. Thelma Drake (R-Virginia)
8. Rep. Deborah Pryce (R-Ohio)
9. Rep. Dave Reichart (R-Washington)
10. Rep. Steve Chabot (R-Ohio)

Here are the open seat Republican victories that occured in 2006 against the national trend--

1. Florida 13 (could be challenged): Vern Buchanan (R) defeated Christine Jennings (D)
2. Illinois 6: Peter Roskam (R) defeated Tammy Duckworth (D)
3. Minnesota 6: Michelle Bachmann (R) defeated Patty Wetterling (D)