2006 Election Recap: Maryland

This was simply not the year to run as a Republican, especially in any blue or marginal state, as we lost (at least) 28 seats in the House, 6 seats in the Senate, and several governorships. My first reaction is that we had it coming and to be honest, deep down inside part of the reason I predicted that Ehrlich would win reelection and that Steele would win the Senate race was that I knew they were both in trouble in this year in Maryland. I don't think we should give up there, it was a bad defeat but if we give up in any state then it means that the Democrats will have that many fewer seats to defend and can spend more time on offense. There were also scattered successes this election and we must learn from our victories as much as from our defeats, because too often we do not analyze the reasons for our success and thus make it harder to repeat that success in the future.

In Maryland, Bob Ehrlich was elected 51 to 48 in 2002 over Democrat Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, defeating a weak candidate in a good election cycle for Republicans. In 2006 he had to run for reelection against Martin O'Malley, a strong Democratic nominee in a tough election cycle for Republicans, and he was the first Republican governor of Maryland since Spiro Agnew resigned to become Vice President of the United States in 1969. Ehrlich's ratings never dropped below 50 percent during his entire four years as Governor, and he had the fortune of good economic times during what turned out to be his only term in office (assuming he doesn't run again). He was defeated by a solid 53 to 45 margin by over 100,000 votes, after winning by about 80,000 in 2002. Michael Steele lost to Ben Cardin by a margin of 54 to 44, wider than the polls predicted. All is not lost in Maryland, however.

Remember that this is a tough election cycle and that there will be other candidates and other races in the future. Really, realignments in any state actually start at the Presidential level, and the key in MD is to nominate candidates who do pretty consistently well in Presidential elections and then let the effect trickle down into other races. We need to fundamentally change the way the Republican party is viewed in states like this, and then we really will be able to start winning elections here.

It might take fifty years, but eventually we must aim to seize control of both houses of the state legislature, of the mayorality of the city of Baltimore, of a substantial percentage of the vote in Baltimore, Prince George's, and Montgomery Counties, and clear dominance in rural Maryland, the Eastern Shore, and the Baltimore suburbs. Someday we will also seize the offices of Comptroller and Attorney General by large margins, as well as a majority of the seats in the state's congressional delegation, not to mention both Senate seats.