Republicans can win Florida's 16th district

After Mark Foley resigned from congress and the scandal about internet chats with former house pages broke out many observers assumed immediately that the race was an automatic gain for the Democrats. Foley's name remains on the ballot any people assumed that the new Republican nominee Joe Negron (who gets Foley's votes) wouldn't have a chance either because he wouldn't be able to win the votes of those unwilling to vote for Foley's name (even though he isn't running) or because voters wouldn't know that he is replacing Foley. Now we know that there will be signs at the polling stations saying that Foley's name is on the ballot but that all the votes he recieves will be going to Negron. House Majority Leader John Boehner has said he doesn't think that Negron has a chance. The Republicans have diverted resources from the seat based on that assumption as well, but the polls show that while the Democrats have a lead it is not insurmountable.

The latest poll, by the South Florida Sun and Sentinal-Scripps, shows Democrat Tim Mahoney with 48 percent of the vote and Republican Joe Negron with 41 percent of the vote. Over seventy percent of respondents in this poll saying that the Foley scandal is going to have "no effect" on the way that they are going to vote in this election. Honestly, I don't think that the Republicans are likely to win here, merely that its entirely possible and the Democrats shouldn't be taking this seat for granted. Negron has to win over the undecideds and cut into Mahoney's support but its entirely possible and I wouldn't count him out.

The risk here is that while the Republicans invest funds in other races and assume that this seat is lost, they will wake up the morning after the election and find out that it is lost: by a few tenths of a percentage point that could have been overcome with proper funds and organization here.

There are two other seats of this type that are "lost:" the 22nd district of Texas (vacated by Tom DeLay), with Democrat Nick Lampson running against Republican write-in Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, and the 18th district of Ohio (vacated by Bob Ney) where Democrat Zack Space is running against Republican State Senator Joy Padgett. There has been only one poll released in the 22nd district of Texas, and it shows Sekula-Gibbs in the lead. Granted it doesn't take into account the fact that there is a write-in and she isn't on the ballot, but if she can get her name out there I wouldn't be surprised to see her pull one of the biggest upsets of the 2006 elections. Joy Padgett is generally trailing but a lot can happen in the three weeks before the election, so we should stay tuned.