2006 House Seat Rankings

This is my analysis of the race for control of the House of Representatives so far. The Republicans have to successfully defend 218 of their 232 seats to win the election, and the scenarios that I have done make me realize how close this election really is going to be. Its not like the Democrats are going to sweep the races that are in play, and the Republicans are not going to be able to defend all of their incumbents successfully. However, there isn't any sign of a massive Democratic wave that is going to give them massive gains and control with votes to spare.

These are the seats in the House of Representatives that the Republicans are going to have an extremely difficult time holding this November:

1. Iowa 1st (open seat)
2. Arizona 8th (open seat)
3. Indiana 8th (John Hostettler)
4. Colorado 7th (open seat)
5. North Carolina 11th (Charles Taylor)

These are the Republican-held seats that are toss-ups:

1. Indiana 2nd (Chris Chocola)
2. Indiana 9th (Mike Sodrel)
3. Kentucky 4th (Geoff Davis)
4. Ohio 18th (open seat)
5. Texas 22nd (open seat)
6. Ohio 1st (Steve Chabot)
7. Ohio 15th (Deborah Pryce)
8. Pennsylvania 6th (Jim Gerlach)
9. New York 24th (open seat)
10. Washington 8th (Dave Reichart)
11. Connecticut 4th (Rob Simmons)
12. Virginia 2nd (Thelma Drake)

These are the Republican incumbents who seem to be doing fairly well and could win if nothing goes wrong between now and November:

1. Florida 22nd (Clay Shaw)
2. Connecticut 4th (Christopher Shays)
3. Pennsylvania 7th (Curt Weldon)
4. Pennsylvania 8th (Mike Fitzpatrick)
5. Pennsylvania 10th (Don Sherwood)
6. Connecticut 5th (Nancy Johnson)
7. New York 19th (Sue Kelly)
8. New York 20th (John Sweeney)
9. New York 25th (James Walsh)
10. New York 29th (Randy Kuhl)
11. Wyoming At-Large (Barbara Cubin)

It is unlikely that the Republicans will make any significant gains from the Democrats this election cycle but here are the potential gains that they could concievably make:

1. Georgia 8th (Jim Marshall)
2. Georgia 12th (John Barrow)
3. Texas 17th (Chet Edwards)
4. Illinois 8th (Melissa Bean)
5. West Virginia 1st (Alan Mollohan)
6. Iowa 3rd (Leonard Boswell)

Right now if the election were held today I have no idea which party would win control of the House. There are just so many variables, but I do know that its going to come down to a handful of seats. I have wargamed the election based on polls and on the general inclinations of a district, and here are my results that I am reasonably certain about:

Republican 214 seats
Democratic 207 seats
Too Close to Call: 16 seats

The following seats are ones that I have listed as too close to call:

Democratic Seats:

Georgia 12th (John Barrow)

Republican Seats:

Connecticut 2nd (Rob Simmons)
Illinois 6th (open seat)
Indiana 2nd (Chris Chocola)
Indiana 9th (Mike Sodrel)
Kentucky 4th (Geoff Davis)
New York 24th (open seat)
Ohio 1st (Steve Chabot)
Ohio 15th (Deborah Pryce)
Ohio 18th (open seat)
Pennsylvania 6th (Jim Gerlach)
Texas 22nd (open seat)
Virginia 2nd (Thelma Drake)
Washington 8th (Dave Reichart)