The next three Senate classes

Just to offer a preview of who is likely to control the Senate in the years to come, I am going to list the makeup of the Senate classes that will be up for reelection in 2008, 2010, and 2012. Oftentimes the party in control of the Senate is decided by the makeup of the class that is up for reelection as much as anything else--

2008 election cycle: 21 Republicans, 12 Democrats

Republicans--

1. Jeff Sessions (R-Alabama)
2. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska)
3. Wayne Allard (R-Colorado)
4. Saxby Chambliss (R-Georgia)
5. Larry Craig (R-Idaho)
6. Pat Roberts (R-Kansas)
7. Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky)
8. Susan Collins (R-Maine)
9. Norm Coleman (R-Minnesota)
10. Thad Cochran (R-Mississippi)
11. Chuck Hagel (R-Nebraska)
12. John Sununu (R-New Hampshire)
13. Pete Domenici (R-New Mexico)
14. Elizabeth Dole (R-North Carolina)
15. James Inhofe (R-Oklahoma)
16. Gordon Smith (R-Oregon)
17. Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina)
18. Lamar Alexander (R-Tennessee)
19. John Cornyn (R-Texas)
20. John Warner (R-Virginia)
21. Mike Enzi (R-Wyoming)

Democrats--

1. Mark Pryor (D-Arkansas)
2. Joseph Biden (D-Delaware)
3. Richard Durbin (D-Illinois)
4. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa)
5. Mary Landrieu (D-Louisiana)
6. John Kerry (D-Massachusetts)
7. Carl Levin (D-Michigan)
8. Max Baucus (D-Montana)
9. Frank Lautenberg (D-New Jersey)
10. Jack Reed (D-Rhode Island)
11. Tim Johnson (D-South Dakota)
12. Jay Rockefeller (D-West Virginia)


2010 election cycle : 19 Republicans, 15 Democrats

Republicans--

1. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska)
2. Richard Shelby (R-Alabama)
3. John McCain (R-Arizona)
4. Mel Martinez (R-Florida)
5. Johnny Isakson (R-Georgia)
6. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa)
7. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho)
8. Sam Brownback (R-Kansas)
9. Jim Bunning (R-Kentucky)
10. David Vitter (R-Louisiana)
11. Kit Bond (R-Missouri)
12. Richard Burr (R-North Carolina)
13. Judd Gregg (R-New Hampshire)
14. George Voinovich (R-Ohio)
15. Tom Coburn (R-Oklahoma)
16. Arlen Specter (R-Pennsylvania)
17. Jim Demint (R-South Carolina)
18. John Thune (R-South Dakota)
19. Robert Bennett (R-Utah)

Democrats--

1. Blanche Lincoln (D-Arkansas)
2. Barbara Boxer (D-California)
3. Ken Salazar (D-Colorado)
4. Chris Dodd (D-Connecticut)
5. Dan Inoyue (D-Hawaii)
6. Barack Obama (D-Illinois)
7. Evan Bayh (D-Indiana)
8. Barbara Mikulski (D-Maryland)
9. Byron Dorgan (D-North Dakota)
10. Harry Reid (D-Nevada)
11. Chuck Schumer (D-New York)
12. Ron Wyden (D-Oregon)
13. Patrick Leahy (D-Vermont)
14. Patty Murray (D-Washington)
15. Russ Feingold (D-Wisconsin)


2012 election cycle: 23 Democrats, 9 Republicans

Republicans:

1. John Ensign (R-Nevada)
2. Bob Corker (R-Tennessee)
3. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah)
4. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-New Mexico)
5. Jon Kyl (R-Arizona)
6. Trent Lott (R-Mississippi)
7. Richard Lugar (R-Indiana)
8. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine)
9. Craig Thomas (R-Wyoming)

Democrats:

1. Daniel Akaka (D-Hawaii)
2. Jeff Bingaman (D-New Mexico)
3. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio)
4. Robert Byrd (D-West Virginia)
5. Maria Cantwell (D-Washington)
6. Ben Cardin (D-Maryland)
7. Tom Carper (D-Delaware)
8. Bob Casey (D-Pennsylvania)
9. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-New York)
10. Kent Conrad (D-North Dakota)
11. Dianne Feinstein (D-California
12. Edward Kennedy (D-Massachusetts)
13. Herb Kohl (D-Wisconsin)
14. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minnesota)
15. Joe Lieberman (ID-Connecticut)
16. Claire McCaskill (D-Missouri)
17. Bill Nelson (D-Florida)
18. Ben Nelson (D-Nebraska)
19. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont)
20. Debbie Stabenow (D-Michigan)
21. Jon Tester (D-Montana)
22. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-Rhode Island)
23. Jim Webb (D-Virginia)

2006 Election Recap: Maryland

This was simply not the year to run as a Republican, especially in any blue or marginal state, as we lost (at least) 28 seats in the House, 6 seats in the Senate, and several governorships. My first reaction is that we had it coming and to be honest, deep down inside part of the reason I predicted that Ehrlich would win reelection and that Steele would win the Senate race was that I knew they were both in trouble in this year in Maryland. I don't think we should give up there, it was a bad defeat but if we give up in any state then it means that the Democrats will have that many fewer seats to defend and can spend more time on offense. There were also scattered successes this election and we must learn from our victories as much as from our defeats, because too often we do not analyze the reasons for our success and thus make it harder to repeat that success in the future.

In Maryland, Bob Ehrlich was elected 51 to 48 in 2002 over Democrat Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, defeating a weak candidate in a good election cycle for Republicans. In 2006 he had to run for reelection against Martin O'Malley, a strong Democratic nominee in a tough election cycle for Republicans, and he was the first Republican governor of Maryland since Spiro Agnew resigned to become Vice President of the United States in 1969. Ehrlich's ratings never dropped below 50 percent during his entire four years as Governor, and he had the fortune of good economic times during what turned out to be his only term in office (assuming he doesn't run again). He was defeated by a solid 53 to 45 margin by over 100,000 votes, after winning by about 80,000 in 2002. Michael Steele lost to Ben Cardin by a margin of 54 to 44, wider than the polls predicted. All is not lost in Maryland, however.

Remember that this is a tough election cycle and that there will be other candidates and other races in the future. Really, realignments in any state actually start at the Presidential level, and the key in MD is to nominate candidates who do pretty consistently well in Presidential elections and then let the effect trickle down into other races. We need to fundamentally change the way the Republican party is viewed in states like this, and then we really will be able to start winning elections here.

It might take fifty years, but eventually we must aim to seize control of both houses of the state legislature, of the mayorality of the city of Baltimore, of a substantial percentage of the vote in Baltimore, Prince George's, and Montgomery Counties, and clear dominance in rural Maryland, the Eastern Shore, and the Baltimore suburbs. Someday we will also seize the offices of Comptroller and Attorney General by large margins, as well as a majority of the seats in the state's congressional delegation, not to mention both Senate seats.

Governor Predictions for 2006

Here are my predictions for the governor's races this year--

Alabama: Governor Bob Reilly (R) will win reelection over Lucy Baxley (D)
Alaska: Sarah Palin (R) will defeat Tony Knowles (D)
Arizona: Governor Janet Napolitano (D) will win reelection over Len Munsil (R)
Arkansas: Michael Beebe (D) will defeat Asa Hutchinson (R)
California: Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) will win reelection over Phil Angelides (D)
Colorado: Bill Ritter (D) will defeat Bob Beauprez (R)
Connecticut: Governor Jodi Rell (R) will win reelection over John DeStefano (D)
Florida: Charlie Crist (R) will defeat Jim Davis (D)
Georgia: Governor Sonny Perdue (R) will win reelection over Mark Taylor (D)
Hawaii: Governor Linda Lingle (R) will win reelection over Randy Iwase (D)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R) will defeat Jerry Brady (D)
Illinois: Governor Rod Blagojevich will win reelection over Judy Baar Topinka (R)
Iowa: Chet Culver (D) will defeat Jim Nussle (R)
Kansas: Governor Kathleen Sebelius (D) will win reelection over James Barnett (R)
Maine: Governor John Baldacci (D) will win reelection over Chandler Woodcock (R)
Maryland: Governor Robert Ehrlich (R) will win reelection over Martin O'Malley (D)
Massachusetts: Deval Patrick (D) will defeat Kerry Healey (R)
Michigan: Governor Jennifer Granholm (D) will defeat Dick DeVos (R)
Minnesota: Mike Hatch (D) will unseat Governor Tim Pawlenty (R)
Nebraska: Governor Dave Heineman (R) will win reelection over David Hahn (D)
Nevada: Dina Titus (D) will upset Jim Gibbons (R)
New Hampshire: Governor John Lynch (D) will defeat Jim Coburn (R)
New Mexico: Governor Bill Richardson (D) will win reelection over John Dendahl (R)
New York: Eliot Spitzer (D) will defeat John Faso (R)
Ohio: Ted Strickland (D) will defeat Kenneth Blackwell (R)
Oklahoma: Governor Brad Henry (D) will win reelection over Ernest Istook (R)
Oregon: Governor Ted Kulongoski (D) will win reelection over Ron Saxton (R)
Pennsylvania: Governor Ed Rendell (D) will win reelection over Lynn Swann (R)
Rhode Island: Governor Don Carcieri (R) will win reelection over Charles Fogarty (D)
South Carolina: Governor Mark Sanford (R) will win reelection over Thomas Moore (D)
South Dakota: Governor Mike Rounds (R) will win reelection over Thomas Billion (D)
Tennessee: Governor Phil Bredesen (D) will win reelection over Jim Bryson (R)
Texas: Governor Rick Perry will win reelection over three opponents
Vermont: Governor Jim Douglas (R) will win reelection over Scudder Parker (D)
Wisconsin: Governor Jim Doyle (D) will win reelection over Mark Green (R)
Wyoming: Governor Dave Freudenthal (D) will win reelection over Ray Hunkins (R)

Senate Predictions for 2006

Here are my predictions for the Senate races of the 2006 election cycle--

Arizona: Senator John Kyl (R) will win reelection over Jim Pederson
California: Senator Dianne Feinstein (D) will win reelection over Richard Mountjoy (R)
Connecticut: Senator Joe Lieberman (I) will win reelection over Ned Lamont (D)
Delaware: Senator Tom Carper (D) will win reelection over Jan Ting (R)
Florida: Senator Bill Nelson (D) will win reelection over Katherine Harris (R)
Hawaii: Senator Daniel Akaka (D) will win reelection over Jerry Coffee (R)
Indiana: Senator Richard Lugar (R) will win reelection over no major party opposition
Maine: Senator Olympia Snowe (R) will win reelection over Jean Hay Bright (D)
Maryland: Michael Steele (R) will upset Ben Cardin (D)
Massachusetts: Senator Edward Kennedy (D) will win reelection over Kenneth Chase (R)
Michigan: Senator Debbie Stabenow (D) will win reelection over Mike Bouchard (R)
Minnesota: Amy Klobuchar (D) will defeat Mark Kennedy (R)
Mississippi: Senator Trent Lott (R) will win reelection over Erik Fleming (D)
Missouri: Claire McCaskill (D) will unseat Senator Jim Talent (R)
Montana: Jon Tester (D) will unseat Senator Conrad Burns (R)
Nebraska: Senator Ben Nelson (D) will win reelection over Pete Ricketts (R)
Nevada: Senator John Ensign (R) will win reelection over Jack Carter (D)
New Jersey: Senator Robert Menendez (D) will win a full term over Tom Kean, Jr. (R)
New Mexico: Senator Jeff Bingaman (D) will win reelection over Allen McCulloch (R)
New York: Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) will win reelection over John Spencer (R)
North Dakota: Senator Kent Conrad (D) will win reelection over Dwight Grotberg (R)
Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) will unseat Senator Mike DeWine (R)
Pennsylvania: Bob Casey (D) will unseat Senator Rick Santorum (R)
Rhode Island: Senator Lincoln Chafee (R) will win reelection over Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
Tennessee: Bob Corker (R) will defeat Harold Ford (D)
Texas: Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison will win reelection over Barbara Ann Radnofsky (D)
Utah: Senator Orrin Hatch (R) will win reelection over Pete Ashdown (D)
Vermont: Bernard Sanders (I) will defeat Richard Tarrant (R)
Virginia: Senator George Allen (R) will win reelection over Jim Webb (D)
Washington: Senator Maria Cantwell (D) will win reelection over Mike McGavick (R)
West Virginia: Senator Robert Byrd (D) will win reelection over Kevin Zaese (R)
Wisconsin: Senator Herb Kohl (D) will win reelection over Robert Gerald Lorge (R)
Wyoming: Senator Craig Thomas (R) will win reelection over Dale Groutage (D)

House Predictions for 2006

Here are my final predictions for the House races that will be decided on Tuesday, November 7th, 2006. I may change some of these as events warrant but I won't be changing very many of them.

Arizona 1: Rep. Rick Renzi (R) will win reelection over Ellen Simon (D)
Arizona 5: Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) will win reelection over Harry Mitchell (D)
Arizona 8: Gabrielle Giffords (D) will defeat Randy Graf (R)
California 4: Rep. John Doolittle (R) will win reelection over Charles Brown (D)
California 11: Rep. Richard Pombo (R) will win reelection over Jerry McNerney (D)
California 50: Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) will win reelection over Francine Busby (D)
Colorado 4: Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R) will win reelection over Angie Paccione (D)
Colorado 7: Ed Perlmutter (D) will defeat Rick O'Donnell (R)
Connecticut 2: Rep. Rob Simmons (R) will defeat Joe Courtney (D)
Connecticut 4: Diane Farrell (D) will defeat Rep. Christopher Shays (R)
Connecticut 5: Christopher Murphy (D) will defeat Rep. Nancy Johnson (R)
Florida 13: Vern Buchanan (R) will defeat Christine Jennings (D)
Florida 16: Joe Negron (R) will defeat Tim Mahoney (D)
Florida 22: Ron Klein (D) will defeat Rep. Clay Shaw (R)
Georgia 8: Rep. Jim Marshall (D) will win reelection over Mac Collins (R)
Georgia 12: Rep. John Barrow (D) will win reelection over Max Burns (R)
Idaho 1: Bill Sali (R) will defeat Larry Grant (D)
Illinois 6: Peter Roskam (R) will defeat Tammy Duckworth (D)
Illinois 8: Rep. Melissa Bean (D) will win reelection over David McSweeney (R)
Indiana 2: Joe Donnelly (D) will defeat Rep. Chris Chocola (R)
Indiana 8: Brad Ellsworth (D) will defeat Rep. John Hostettler (R)
Indiana 9: Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) will win reelection over Baron Hill (D)
Iowa 1: Bruce Braley (D) will defeat Mike Wahlen (R)
Kentucky 2: Rep. Ron Lewis (R) will defeat Mike Weaver (D)
Kentucky 3: John Yarmuth (D) will defeat Rep. Ann Northup (R)
Kentucky 4: Rep. Geoff Davis (R) will win reelection over Ken Lucas (D)
Minnesota 1: Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R) will win reelection over Tim Walz (D)
Minnesota 2: Rep. John Kline (R) will win reelection over Colleen Rowley (D)
Minnesota 6: Michelle Bachmann (R) will defeat Patty Wetterling (D)
Nebraska 1: Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R) will win reelection over Maxine Moul (D)
Nebraska 3: Adrian Smith (R) will defeat Scott Kleeb (D)
Nevada 2: Dean Heller (R) will defeat Jill Derby (D)
Nevada 3: Rep. Jon Porter (R) will win reelection over Tessa Hafen (D)
New Hampshire 2: Paul Hodes (D) will defeat Rep. Charles Bass (R)
New Jersey 7: Rep. Mike Ferguson (R) will win reelection over Linda Stender (D)
New Mexico 1: Patricia Madrid (D) will defeat Rep. Heather Wilson (R)
New York 19: Rep. Sue Kelly (R) will win reelection over John Hall (D)
New York 20: Rep John Sweeney (R) will win reelection over Kristin Gillibrand (D)
New York 24: Michael Arcuri (D) will defeat Raymond Meier (R)
New York 25: Rep. James Walsh (R) will win reelection over Dan Maffei (D)
New York 26: Rep. Tom Reynolds (R) will win reelection over Jack Davis (D)
New York 29: Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) will win reelection over Eric Massa (D)
North Carolina 11: Heath Schuler (D) will defeat Rep. Charles Taylor (R)
Ohio 1: Rep. Steve Chabot (R) will win reelection over John Cranley (D)
Ohio 2: Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) will win reelection over Victoria Wulsin (D)
Ohio 15: Mary Jo Kilroy (D) will defeat Rep. Deborah Pryce (R)
Ohio 18: Zack Space (D) will defeat Joy Padgett (R)
Pennsylvania 6: Lois Murphy (D) will defeat Rep. Jim Gerlach (R)
Pennsylvania 7: Joe Sestak (D) will defeat Rep. Curt Weldon (R)
Pennsylvania 8: Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R) will win reelection over Patrick Murphy (D)
Pennsylvania 10: Chris Carney (D) will defeat Rep. Don Sherwood (R)
Texas 22: Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) will defeat Nick Lampson (D)
Vermont At-Large: Peter Welch (D) will defeat Martha Rainville (R)
Virginia 2: Rep. Thelma Drake (R) will win reelection over Phil Kellam (D)
Washington 8: Rep. Dave Reichart (R) will win reelection over Darcy Burner (D)
Wisconsin 8: John Gard (R) will defeat Steve Kagan (D)
Wyoming At-Large: Rep. Barbara Cubin (R) will win reelection over Gary Trauner (D)

Seat Prediction: Democratic +18

Democratic 220
Republican 215

Didn't blog the debate

Yes, I didn't blog that Maryland Senate debate like I said I would, but I will be discussing that race later today.