I guess I have to wait until 10:30

I have to wait until 10:30 in the morning for this debate because the broadcast is delayed in this television market, even though the debate is going to run from 9 to 10 in most other markets. I guess that I am just going to have to wait until later to watch it.

Blogging the Maryland Senate Debate

Its 9 in the morning and Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele (R) and Rep. Ben Cardin (D) are set to debate in the key Maryland Senate race which could help decide control of the Senate. I am going to be blogging on this debate and I will be commenting throughout as I watch it. Although Cardin has the advantage in this traditionally Democratic state, but Steele has run an effective campaign and seems to have the momentum. I will be sharing my thoughts throughout the debate.

File this under "we're going to lose disastrously"

The latest poll in the 6th congressional district of Illinois shows Peter Roskam (R), leading Tammy Duckworth (D), by 4 points. The Chicago Tribune poll shows Roskam at 43 percent and Duckworth at 39 percent. The poll was taken from October 14th to October 18th. Additionally Roskam has over $1.5 million in the bank while Duckworth has $200,000 in the bank. The DCCC feels the need to spend $2.3 million attacking Roskam over the final two weeks of the election so they obviously don't feel that they have a major lead here.

Republicans can win Florida's 16th district

After Mark Foley resigned from congress and the scandal about internet chats with former house pages broke out many observers assumed immediately that the race was an automatic gain for the Democrats. Foley's name remains on the ballot any people assumed that the new Republican nominee Joe Negron (who gets Foley's votes) wouldn't have a chance either because he wouldn't be able to win the votes of those unwilling to vote for Foley's name (even though he isn't running) or because voters wouldn't know that he is replacing Foley. Now we know that there will be signs at the polling stations saying that Foley's name is on the ballot but that all the votes he recieves will be going to Negron. House Majority Leader John Boehner has said he doesn't think that Negron has a chance. The Republicans have diverted resources from the seat based on that assumption as well, but the polls show that while the Democrats have a lead it is not insurmountable.

The latest poll, by the South Florida Sun and Sentinal-Scripps, shows Democrat Tim Mahoney with 48 percent of the vote and Republican Joe Negron with 41 percent of the vote. Over seventy percent of respondents in this poll saying that the Foley scandal is going to have "no effect" on the way that they are going to vote in this election. Honestly, I don't think that the Republicans are likely to win here, merely that its entirely possible and the Democrats shouldn't be taking this seat for granted. Negron has to win over the undecideds and cut into Mahoney's support but its entirely possible and I wouldn't count him out.

The risk here is that while the Republicans invest funds in other races and assume that this seat is lost, they will wake up the morning after the election and find out that it is lost: by a few tenths of a percentage point that could have been overcome with proper funds and organization here.

There are two other seats of this type that are "lost:" the 22nd district of Texas (vacated by Tom DeLay), with Democrat Nick Lampson running against Republican write-in Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, and the 18th district of Ohio (vacated by Bob Ney) where Democrat Zack Space is running against Republican State Senator Joy Padgett. There has been only one poll released in the 22nd district of Texas, and it shows Sekula-Gibbs in the lead. Granted it doesn't take into account the fact that there is a write-in and she isn't on the ballot, but if she can get her name out there I wouldn't be surprised to see her pull one of the biggest upsets of the 2006 elections. Joy Padgett is generally trailing but a lot can happen in the three weeks before the election, so we should stay tuned.

A Dictatorship of Truth

Recently France has decided to pass a law making it a crime to deny that Armenians were persecuted by the Ottoman Turks. The Armenian Genocide happened between 1915 and 1917, and hundreds of thousands of Armenians were deported from Anatolia and Mesopotamia and that over 1 million died as a result of these deportations. The Turkish government still maintains that this did not reach the scale of genocide, and they have strongly protested the actions of the French in passing this legislation. They say that they may take action against France (whatever that means, probably economic) in response to this legislation. It greatly concerns me that France would pass a law effectively limiting the right of free speech, even if what is suppressed is denial of a ghastly event that actually happened in the past. This is the same as laws that prohibit denial of the Holocaust: its censorship, and it actually seems like a form of weakness. For instance--

A case has not been truly refuted until it has been stated in its strongest form:

1. Forced migrations do not constitute genocide.

2. The deaths among the Armenian population were due to famine and the turmoil of World War I.

3. The graves in the desert were dug due to the difficulties of travelling through desert conditions.

The verdict of historians is unanimous about Armenian genocide (except for Turkish historians), and the fact is that if there is a forced migration that results in hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of deaths then it is genocide. The Turkish authorities deported the Armenians to desert regions to cover up the mass graves, and this has been proven.

The above are all facts. It bothers me (despite the good intentions behind this legislation), that the people who have the truth on their side feel the need to prevent those who cling to myths and outright falsehoods from expressing their incorrect and irrational views. Its not a sign of strength to stifle opposition to something, its a sign of weakness. Let me say again that I think denying genocide is absolutely despicable, its the cens0rship that I am against. Let us counter falsehoods with facts, lies with truth, and discrimination with tolerance. Those who deny history can live in their own little world based on discredited lies, and by their very expression of their views they will be denied the opportunity to implement them.

As for the Turkish government and the Turkish people, they must admit that the genocide happened and stop sugarcoating the unpleasant facts about their past. Its only by admitting that one's own past is not flawless that the journey through which a society has travelled to reach the present is thrown into starker relief.

The Foley scandal really is big

Recently I was talking to my friend on AIM and he is someone who normally does not talk about politics except very briefly. But on Tuesday he asked me what I thought about Mark Foley and he and I had a conversation about it, and he seemed to know as much about the scandal as I did. This is but one example that I have encountered that shows how big and damaging the Foley scandal really is to Republicans this year, especially in the race to win control of the House. This is something that ordinary people can understand and it makes Foley a poster boy for everything that has gone wrong over the past two years.

The latest poll in Reynolds' seat highlights the devastating impact that this story is having across the nation--

New York 25th: (surveyusa)

Tom Reynolds (R) - 45
Jack Davis (D) - 50

This is a seat that should be safe for the Republicans, but now its at best a tossup, and at worse another seat that the Democrats are likely to gain.

The other numbers are sheer agony:

In another SurveyUSA poll from October 4th, 80 percent of voters were aware of the scandal involving Mark Foley. When asked about whether the scandal would make them more likely to vote for Republican candidates or less likely, 9 percent said more likely and 44 percent said less likely. It is worth noting though that 47 percent said it would not affect their vote, and perhaps the one silver lining in this poll is that 56 percent either are more likely to back Republican candidates or don't care. However, this isn't very silver.

Moving on, when asked if Republican leaders did enough about the matter, 13 percent said they did enough and 79 percent said they didn't. When asked if Dennis Hastert should remain speaker, 30 percent said yes, 20 percent said he should resign his position, and 46 percent said he should resign from congress.

These are just agony for the Republicans, but there is more from Rasmussen--

According to a poll by Rasmussen, 61 percent believe that Foley was protected for years and only 21 percent believe that the leadership learned of the scandal last week. Once again this is devastating.

There is some good news, as I have mentioned briefly earlier--

According to SurveyUSA, 56 percent say that its either more likely that they will vote for Republican candidates this November or that it won't affect their vote. It means that there is a big bloc of undecideds who don't like this scandal one bit but might be persuaded to back Republican candidates if they felt that the alternative was unacceptable. However, as I said this isn't that much of a silver lining.