Will Democrats win control of the House in 2006?

Perhaps the central question of the 2006 election cycle is whether or not the Democrats will be able to gain enough seats to win control of either the House of Representatives or the Senate in this November's elections. Usually the House only switches when the Senate flips as well, but this year things could be different given the makeup of the Senate races and the likelihood that the Republicans will retain control of the upper chamber. There are simply too few hotly contested races for Democrats to stand a realistic possibility of winning that chamber, although they could potentially win it by carrying a few Senators in on the strength of a massive victory in the House, though this is unlikely.

Can the Democrats win the House, in order to find the answer to this question, let's first examine the closest races of 2004 which resulted in Republican victories:

Indiana 9 - Mike Sodrel (0.5 percent)
Pennsylvania 6 - Jim Gerlach (2.03)
Connecticut 4 - Christopher Shays (4.68)
Washington 8 - Dave Reichert (4.8)
Colorado 4 - Marilyn Musgrave (6.27)
Minnesota 6 - Mark Kennedy (8.05) -Open Seat in 2006
Connecticut 2 - Rob Simmons (8.37)
Indiana 8 - John Hostettler (8.82)
New Mexico 1 - Heather Wilson (8.88)
Indiana 2 - Chris Choccola (9.63)
North Carolina 11 - Charles Taylor (9.8)
New York 29 - Randy Kuhl (9.86)
Louisiana 7 - Charles Boustany (9.92)
Virginia 2 - Thelma Drake (10.27)
Kentucky 4 - Geoff Davis (10.51)
Texas 32 - Pete Sessions (10.51)
Florida 13 - Katherine Harris (10.6) - Open Seat in 2006

These were some of the closest House races in 2004, and we have to keep in mind that simply because a race was close then doesn't mean it will be close this year. In the Texas 32nd, Pete Sessions defeated Rep. Martin Frost, who was probably the best the Democrats could have put up. As I examine these races and others which would potentially be close, I have to come to the conclusion that the Democrats can't - and won't - win control of the House of Representatives in November 2006. The media believes they can because reporters lack framiliarity with the individual races, and when they are examined it reveals the truly uphill battle Democrats face this November.

Additionally, many of the seats the Democrats are decently positioned to oust Republican incumbents in are districts where Kerry won large percentages of the vote. Currently for example, the delegation from Connecticut, a state won by Kerry, has three Republicans (Nancy Johnson, Christopher Shays, and Rob Simmons) against only two democrats (Rosa DeLauro, John Larson). Christopher shays was reelected only 52-48 over Democrat Diane Farrell, and she is running again this year in a political climate more favorable to the Democrats, and the race is anyone's at the moment, and the seat would be one of the easiest pickup opportunities for the Democrats. Additionally the seat held by Rob Simmons would be another potential gain, giving the Democrats a 4-1 edge in the Connecticut delegation. The thing is, it is entirely possible for the Democrats to win the House on the strength of blue state anger at Republicans, but such a victory would not last over the long term. They would be winning many seats which would not exist in a few years after the 2010 census, and it would be entirely possible for Republicans to retake the House in 2008 or 2010 if Democrats win this year.

Such a "blue state sweep" might actually in my humble opinion be one of the worst possible scenarios for the Democratic Party, as they would win on the strength of the liberal base without actually changing to make themselves more mainstream. The fact is that voters aren't sold on the Democrats yet, and they have a lot of work to do to win the support of mainstream Americans.

Glad I don't live in Italy or France

Recently the major troubles in both Italy and France have made me even more proud to be an American, and especially glad that I don't live in either of those countries. In France the government tries to introduce labor laws to make it easier to fire incompetent young workers, and the students and union members have these big riots all over Paris, forcing the government into an embarrassing climbdown over the issue. In fact, the intention of the legislation was to reduce the reluctance on the part of employers to hire younger workers because of the difficulty in firing them. It is not because the government wants to throw thousands of people out of work, but because they want just the opposite. During this crisis it showed that both sides, the left and the right in France have no answers and nothing to offer in the way of improving the country. The French System is going to be endangered without changes to it quickly, changes that will require short term pain and maybe even tax increases.

Italy is even worse in many ways. In 2005 the economy did not grow at all, and the country only emerged from recession this year, with GDP growth expected under 2 percent. I am not sure, and I admit to not having the statistics right in front of me, but I believe that their GDP for the first quarter of 2006 has been 1.1 percent, but I am not sure if this is projected or a formal statistic. Let me first admit my bias here: I am a HUGE fan of outgoing (and hopefully future) Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, and I hope that he is able to deal a knockout blow to the government of Romano Prodi as soon as possible, but at the same time, Italy doesn't really have anyone who has the courage or even the capability of turning the country around. Consider that when you hear about votes for Prodi and votes for Berlusconi being separated by less than 25,000 for the lower house, oftentimes what is neglected to mention is that Prodi and Berlusconi are not individual candidates, nor even leaders of two unified parties. Instead they are the respective leaders of the center-right House of Freedoms (Berlusconi) and the center-left Union (Prodi). Within these coalitions are several parties all of which are in disagreement with each other on at least some things.

Prodi's coalition contains centrist roman catholics, as well as hard left unreformed communists. Berlusconi's coalition includes at least one neofascist party, and a minor party in the coalition (albiet with no seats) is led by Alessandra Mussolini, granddaughter of Il Duce himself.

There is no way the Union will be able to push through much of what it is proposing, and to be honest much of what it is proposing isn't going to make things better. I don't want to get into specifics but I believe they plan to scrap a labor law that was one of the reforms that Berlusconi did that even his harsh critics in the Economist thought was beneficial. What they have now is not a government, its a mess. They can't even agree who the Speaker of the House of Deputies is going to be, so there is no evidence that they will be able to govern for anywhere close to the "full five year term" pledged by incoming Prime Minsiter Romano Prodi. Instead, what is more likely to happen is another election this year, perhaps as early as November.

The Brilliance of Silvio Berlusconi

One thing that supporters and detractors of the outgoing Italian Prime Minister seem to rarely mention is the sheer brilliance of the man. Love him or hate him, its difficult to suggest that he's anything but brilliant and often one step ahead of the rest of the politicians. During the campaign he was behind in every poll, committed some serious gaffes including comparing himself to Jesus, calling opponents "dickheads" and told poor Italians to "make more money." He said that his opponents were communists (Prodi does in fact have the communists in his coalition) and that the communists supported boiling babies because they didn't object when the practice of killing unwanted children used to happen in China. No published poll that was not sponsored by Berlusconi showed him in the lead or anywhere close to it. In November of last year, he was down by 10 points and seemed finished.

And yet, with all that, he still came very nearly close to pulling off the upset of a lifetime. This doesn't happen without skill, and it doesn't happen without a strategy out of which victory (or in this case defeat by a narrow margin) can evolve. First of all, there was a method to the apparent absurdity of the Prime Minister's gaffes. He managed to focus attention exclusively on him and away from Prodi and the center-left. They fell for his trap and made the campaign almost entirely about him, thus ensuring that he will represent the center-right that lost the election even after Prodi officially takes over as Prime Minister probably late next month.

In addition, who, when faced with prosecution, ever even CONSIDERS getting elected and changing laws for their benefit. And yet, Berlusconi did just that when he was in office, and much of him time appeared to be spend trying to keep him and his friends out of trouble.

The center-left coalition has encountered internal divisions even before it has formally taken office and there is an outside chance that Berlusconi would be able to block the formation of a government and force new elections. This is not the most likely scenario, and it is likely that the Union will survive the current disputes intact, but they aren't going to be able to continue like this for five years. Eventually their differences and internal contradictions are going to bring them down. Ironically, if Berlusconi is behind in the polls it might allow their differences to become more apparent and could pave the way for yet another term in government for this most brilliant of politicians.

Silvio Berlusconi's virtues

Most of the time when you hear about Prime Minister (for at least a few more weeks) Silvio Berlusconi, you hear about how he is one of the most corrupt politicians in Italy and some even alledge that he is a dictator in the making. None of this is true, and indeed, while he won't be winning any honest politician of the year awards, people really should be more fair minded in their treatment of him, and be willing to focus on the good as well as the bad.

We all know the results of the elections, but in case you don't here they are:

House of Deputies (Lower House):

Union-Prodi 49.8 (341 seats)
House of Freedom-Berlusconi 49.7 (277 seats)

Senate (Upper House):

Union 49.96 (158 seats)
House of Freedom 50.21 (156 seats)

The reason why the Union got more seats in the House of Deputies than their vote share would seem to entitle them to is because of the electoral laws pushed through late last year by Berlusconi's government in the hopes that proportional representation would make it easier for him to retain power. The laws also gave votes to Italians abroad, who, ironically, voted heavily for the Union, providing Prodi with four crucial seats in the Senate to overcome the 155-154 edge that the House of Freedom recieved with the votes from Italy.

Berlusconi has refused to concede the election, although Prodi has declared victory and pledged to form a government. He is not expected to take office until the middle of next month.

Now, back to Berlusconi. He is often villified for changing laws to his benefit, but when one of his changes is examined specifically, it could turn out to benefit all Italians, though the President refused to countersign it, saying it was extraconstitutional. This law would have taken away the right of the prosecution to appeal an acquittal while preserving the right of appeal for the defense. This is a law which benefits all Italians by giving them the same rights that they have in the United States and many other countries. Does it help Berlusconi, yes. Does it help all italians charged with a crime and protect them from having the prosecution appeal their acquittal? Yes.

The economic issues notwithstanding, Berlusconi has not been responsible for the failures that Italy has had over the years, which are structural rather than something that any one government can simply fix. Furthermore, if the center-left is serious about improving the economic situation then why are the keen on rolling back some of the reforms introduced by the Berlusconi government? Why are they so keen on doing anything and everything to take power, including putting communists in their coalition.

It is my hope that Berlusconi will be able to deliver the knockout blow to this new incoming government sometime this year.